NY23: Was Owens Sworn In Too Soon? Absentee Ballots Keeping Hoffman Victory Within Reach?

On election night, a Hoffman victory looked like it was close but no cigar. After Hoffman conceded, Pelosi wasted no time getting him sworn into office. She needed every vote she could get to ram Pelosicare through. Now that 100% of the polls have reported and all of the absentee ballots are being counted, the race is not just tightening but is turning into a photo finish:

Owens declared victory after Conservative nominee Doug Hoffman conceded the 23rd Congressional District race election night. Now recanvassing shows the special election has narrowed to a 3,000-vote difference, and will be decided by a count of absentee ballots. Washington -- Conservative Doug Hoffman conceded the race in the 23rd Congressional District last week after receiving two pieces of grim news for his campaign: He was down 5,335 votes with 93 percent of the vote counted on election night, and he had barely won his stronghold in Oswego County.

As it turns out, neither was true.

After all of the missing votes were found and tabulated, here is the current count:

Now a recanvassing in the 11-county district shows that Owens’ lead has narrowed to 3,026 votes over Hoffman, 66,698 to 63,672, according to the latest unofficial results from the state Board of Elections.

In Oswego County, where Hoffman was reported to lead by only 500 votes with 93 percent of the vote counted election night, inspectors found Hoffman actually won by 1,748 votes -- 12,748 to 11,000.

The new vote totals mean the race will be decided by absentee ballots, of which about 10,200 were distributed, said John Conklin, communications director for the state Board of Elections.

Out of over 10,000 votes, Hoffman must outnumber the votes that Owens gets by 3,000. It is still a long shot, but it is definitely attainable.

Since most of the ballots were sent in before Dede Scozzofava dropped out, she will play a huge role in the outcome as well. Will she take more away from Owens or Hoffman. Some experts believe that Hoffman would benefit more than Owens, but will it be enough?

I can see why Pelosi rushed him through. She might have know that this might happen and didn't Hoffman taking back his concession before she could get Owens sworn in.

One might wonder how she was able to do this in the first place. Here's how:

"We sent a letter to the clerk laying out the totals," Conklin said. "The key is that Hoffman conceded, which means the race is not contested. However, all ballots will be counted, and if the result changes, Owens will have to be removed."

Would a contested race that would have kept Owens from swearing in kept the healthcare bill from going through? Probably not, it passed with 220 votes two more than they needed. So, one less vote wouldn't killed the bill, but as close as it was, it could have.

These "mistakes" could've had a profound impact on the future of this country. Owens shouldn't have been sworn in until all of the votes were counted. If Pelosi wanted his vote, she should have delayed the vote until all the ballots were counted. What was the rush? Maybe she didn't want to give the public more time to read here almost 2,000 page bill. People would might have found more that they didn't like in the bill, if they were actually given a chance to read it.

The chances of a "Dewey Defeats Truman" moment is slim, but it is still worthwhile to keep an eye on the count. It could give Hoffman momentum that he would need to try again in November 2010.

Now, this comment by Owens' spokesman had nothing substantial to add, but it was just a brilliant non-answer that I had to add it:

When asked about the tightening race, Owens spokesman Jon Boughtin released a statement without directly addressing the election. "Since being elected, Congressman Owens has remained focused on the issues at hand: working with local leaders to address the Champlain Bridge closure, meeting with commanders at Fort Drum and continuing the work to strengthen Upstate New York," the statement said.

Brilliant!

NY23: Former Republican Candidate Scozzafava Endorses Democrat Owens Over Conservative Hoffman

When the liberal Republican candidate dropped out of the race earlier this week, many thought that she would probably endorse Hoffman for the House seat. Apparently, they were, not that all surprisingly, wrong:

State Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava (R), who dropped from the special election in Upstate New York yesterday, has now thrown her support to Democrat Bill Owens.

"It's not in the cards for me to be your representative, but I strongly believe Bill is the only candidate who can build upon John McHugh's lasting legacy in the U.S. Congress," said Scozzafava in a statement released moments ago.

The reason why Palin and most other Republicans endorsed Hoffman rather than the actual Republican candidate was that they believed that they didn't see much, if any, difference between the Republican and Democratic candidates. As Palin put it in her endorsement announcement on Facebook:

Political parties must stand for something. When Republicans were in the wilderness in the late 1970s, Ronald Reagan knew that the doctrine of "blurring the lines" between parties was not an appropriate way to win elections. Unfortunately, the Republican Party today has decided to choose a candidate who more than blurs the lines, and there is no real difference between the Democrat and the Republican in this race. This is why Doug Hoffman is running on the Conservative Party's ticket.

Republicans' suspicions were confirmed by the former Republican candidate's endorsement for the Democrat.

Exit thought: One of the main reasons why Gingrich said that he endorsed Scozzafavawas that he didn't wanted to show party loyalty and thought that an endorsement of Hoffman would split the party. So what does he think of Scozzafava's endorsement of the Democrat Bill Owens, today?

NY23: Scozzafava Quits, What Does This Mean for Republican Party?

A bomb just went off in New York. After the latest Siena poll that showed that the Republican candidate was taking a nose dive, the Scozzafava campaign announced that they were suspending:

Dede Scozzafava, the Republican and Independence parties candidate, announced Saturday that she is suspending her campaign for the 23rd Congressional District and releasing all her supporters.

The state Assemblywoman has not thrown her support to either Doug Hoffman, the Conservative Party candidate, or Bill Owens, the Democratic candidate."

Today, I again seek to act for the good of our community," Ms. Scozzafava wrote in a letter to friends and supporters. "It is increasingly clear that pressure is mounting on many of my supporters to shift their support. Consequently, I hereby release those individuals who have endorsed and supported my campaign to transfer their support as they see fit to do so. I am and have always been a proud Republican. It is my hope that with my actions today, my party will emerge stronger and our district and our nation can take an important step towards restoring the enduring strength and economic prosperity that has defined us for generations."

This will free up Hoffman to take most of the voters that would of voted for Scozzafava. There really haven’t been any polls that I’ve seen, yet, that say how many of the her supporters will support Hoffman, but I would say that it is more likely that most will support Hoffman rather than support Owens.

On Twitter, Jordan Raynor asked a good question:

Does Scozzafava dropping out diminish the implications of a Hoffman win nationally? #ny23

I don’t think that it does diminish what has be accomplished by the grassroots Hoffman revolution. In fact, it validates all that it was supposed to achieve. The local Republican party made the choice of running someone who is more middle of the road because they believed that voters were looking for candidates that were more like Obama and other more liberal candidates not like Reagan. They had a rude awakening ever since Palin’s endorsement of Hoffman brought the race into the national spotlight even more than it already was. Palin made the people in the NY23 district take a closer look at Hoffman, and they liked what they saw from him much more than Scozzafava.

As a result, her numbers plummeted, and Hoffman pulled into a virtual tie with the Democrat Bill Owens. Hopefully, the national party is taking notes. We don’t them to run people like John McCain. We need them to realize Reaganism isn’t dead. The liberal agenda of the Obama Administration is awakening people to remember why they don’t want the United States to become a more liberal country.

Michael Steele Backs Hoffman: Two Republicans Are in the Race

In an interview with Politico, Michael Steele caved to the those who were backing the Conservative Candidate Hoffman. He didn't chastise other Republicans like Palin, Armey, Pawlenty, etc for not endorsing their party's candidate:

Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele said Friday that a victory by Doug Hoffman, the third-party candidate in the Nov. 3 New York special election, is a win for the GOP.

The actual Republican nominee, Dede Scozzafava, trails Hoffman, the Conservative Party nominee, and Democrat Bill Owens by double-digits according to a recent poll. But Steele argued during an interview with POLITICO that the GOP doesn’t need to worry about Scozzafava’s lagging ratings because Hoffman is essentially a Republican.

Unlike Newt Gingrich, Steele doesn't feel that going for Hoffman will destroy the party. In fact, he said that he will embrace the third party candidate:

“I don’t split the party into conservative or not,” he said. “I’m looking as the national chairman to walk out of there one way or the other with a win.”

“You’ve got two Republicans running in that race. My upside is that one of them will likely win,” Steele said. “We want to be supporting the one that wins.”

Asked if he would support Hoffman in 2010 if the Conservative Party candidate won the special election and sought re-election, Steele responded: “Why wouldn’t I?”

“Is he a Republican?” Steele asked. “He’s the Conservative Party nominee, but he ran initially as a Republican.”

This is a change from what has been said, so far, not from Steele himself but other state party leaders who nominated the more liberal Dede Scozzafava who were furious with Republicans from outside their state throwing their candidate under the bus.

Apparently, they've seen the writing on the wall, and the decision has been made by New York's 23rd district. The people want a more conservative Republican candidate not a RINO running for office.