For the first time since Democrats in Congress passed the health care bill in March, a majority of U.S. voters believe the measure is likely to be repealed.
A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 52% of Likely U.S. Voters think it is at least somewhat likely that the health care plan will be repealed. Thirty-three percent (33%) view repeal as unlikely. Those figures include 16% who believe repeal is Very Likely and 5% who believe it is Not at All Likely.
The number who view repeal as Likely is up from 47% last month and from 38% in early April. Belief that the plan is likely to be repealed has been hovering in the 40% range in surveys since April but began to rise in late October. Last week, a federal judge found a key provision in the law to be unconstitutional.
Fifty-five percent (55%) of voters now favor repeal of the health care law, including 40% who Strongly Favor it. Forty-one percent (41%) are opposed to repeal, with 31% Strongly Opposed. Support for repeal has ranged from 50% to 63% in weekly tracking since the bill became law in late March. Last week, support for repeal was at 60%.
Why is this happening? The overall mood of the country really hasn't changed much. Just as many believe that it should be repealed as before. The reasons for this shift is two-fold.
One, the Republicans are taking over the House and gaining power in the Senate, although not total control.
Secondly, there are the court cases in Virginia and Florida that is deciding the constitutionality of the law. The judge in Virginia has already declared the individual mandate unconstitutional, and the Florida case doesn't seem to be breaking the administration's way, either.
As the new Speaker of the House, John Boehner has already said that a bill to reapeal ObamaCare will be one of the first things on his agenda, and with the Republicans in control of the House, it is almost a certainty that it'll pass the House.
On the other side of Congress, the Senate is much more tricky. The Democrats will still control the agenda on that side, and it'll need a significant amount of support from the Senate Democrats, in order for it to get passed.
If it does somehow pass both sides of Congress, there's 0% chance of it being signed by Obama, at this point. In a recent conversation with South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, the president said that ther was no way that he would sign anything that would repeal his key piece of legislation that was a core component of his dopmestic agenda.
However, if public opinion gets too bad, he may have to do it, in order to get re-elected. Also, if the Supreme Court declares part or all of it unconstitutional, he may have no choice.
So, a repeal is still a long shot, but the tide is turning in that direction.